2021 UEFA Champions League odds, picks: Proven soccer model reveals best bets for Real Madrid vs. Chelsea

Real Madrid has won a record 13 Champions League titles, but it faces a formidable foe on Tuesday when it hosts Chelsea in the first leg of the 2021 UEFA Champions League semifinals at Estadio Alfredo Di Stefano. Real Madrid is battling with Atletico Madrid and Barcelona in the Spanish Primera Division and is two points behind its cross-town rivals after a 0-0 draw with Real Betis on Saturday. Chelsea moved into fourth in the English Premier League with a 1-0 win against West Ham. Chelsea's hallmark has been stout defense, and Real's Karim Benzema and former Chelsea man Eden Hazard will try to break through on Tuesday.     

Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET. Real Madrid is a 0.5-goal and +140 money-line favorite in the latest Chelsea vs. Real Madrid odds at William Hill Sportsbook, and the over-under for total goals scored is 2.5. Before you lock in your Real Madrid vs. Chelsea picks, be sure to see the UEFA Champions League predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proprietary European soccer model.

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Created by two Norwegians -- professional poker player and sports bettor Jonas Gjelstad, and economics and engineering expert Marius Norheim -- the model analyzes worldwide betting data and exploits market inefficiencies, helping its followers cash in. Since coming to SportsLine in 2019, the algorithm is up over $8,200.

Now, the model has set its sights on Real Madrid vs. Chelsea. You can visit SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several odds and trends for Chelsea vs. Real Madrid:

  • Real Madrid vs. Chelsea spread: Madrid -0.5
  • Real Madrid vs. Chelsea over-under: 2.5 goals
  • Real Madrid vs. Chelsea money line: Chelsea +225, Madrid +140, Draw +205
  • RMA: Toni Kroos leads La Liga in passes into the final third (253) and is second in key passes (63)
  • CHE: Mason Mount ranks second in the Premier League in shot-creating actions (143)

Why you should back Real Madrid

Los Blancos are known for their exciting play, but in recent weeks the defense has been front and center. They have not allowed a goal in the past four games and are unbeaten in their last 17. Real Madrid has the firepower with the likes of Benzema and Hazard up front, and midfielders Toni Kroos, Casemiro and Luka Modric are top-notch distributors. Benzema trails only Lionel Messi in goals in La Liga with 21, and he has five in eight Champions League matches. Casemiro has six goals and four assists overall, while Kroos and Modric have a combined 16 assists.     

Los Blancos are plus-32 in goal differential in league games, allowing just 24 in the 33 contests and have allowed 11 in 10 matches in this event. Raphael Varane and Eder Militao have been a strong nucleus on the back line. Goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois has 15 clean sheets in 33 La Liga games and leads the league in save percentage at 81.6. 

Why you should back Chelsea

The Blues have been in top form since Thomas Tuchel took over as manager in late January and have not lost in their past 10 games on the road. They have 16 clean sheets in 20 games in all competitions since Tuchel arrived, and they have allowed just three goals in 10 matches in this year's Champions League. Goalkeeper Edouard Mendy has 15 clean sheets in 33 league games and seven in the UCL, and Cesar Azpilicueta and Thiago Silva are elite defenders in front of him. Ben Chilwell (five assists in league play) plays a critical role at both ends.     

Real Madrid has four straight clean sheets but failed to score in three of them. Chelsea will try to hold possession and fend off counter-attacks, and it has plenty of scoring options. Tuchel is seeking the right mix, but Timo Werner (six goals, six assists in EPL play) is a major threat and Mason Mount (six goals, four assists) is always in the middle of the action. Jorginho and Tammy Abraham both have six goals, while Olivier Giroud and Christian Pulisic have four. 

How to make picks for Real Madrid vs. Chelsea

The model is leaning under on the goal total, and it also has locked in a strong money-line pick for Chelsea vs. Real Madrid. You can only get that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Real Madrid vs. Chelsea? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Chelsea vs. Real Madrid money line has all the value, all from the proprietary European soccer model that's up over $8,200.